IDENTIFYING THE DRIVERS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TENNIS IN IRAQ AND DRAWING FUTURE SCENARIOS

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to conduct a foresight analysis of tennis in Iraq by 2033 using the scenario planning method. The research is applied and future-oriented, conducted with a mixed-methods approach (qualitative and quantitative) in a survey-case study design. Initially, the theoretical literature on foresight and tennis development was reviewed, followed by the development of the research methodology. The participants included all experts in the field of tennis in Iraq, such as faculty members in sports management, professional tennis players, coaches, and tennis experts, as well as managers, tournament organizers, federation and association officials, fans, and audiences. They were selected through purposive and snowball sampling methods. For environmental scanning, the PESTEL model was used, identifying 41 drivers. After three rounds of the Delphi process, 21 drivers with a 70% agreement among experts were selected. These drivers were then analyzed using a cross-impact questionnaire and MICMAC software. The results identified four key drivers: “the influence of foreign policies and international relations,” “private sector support for tennis,” “expansion of commercial leagues,” and “increased financial turnover through advertising and branding.” Using Scenario Wizard software, three main scenarios for the future of tennis in Iraq were developed: “Sustainable Progress,” “Interaction Challenges,” and “Unsustainable Growth.” The Sustainable Progress scenario, as the best-case scenario, ensures optimal growth for tennis through full coordination among factors such as international policies, private sector support, expansion of commercial leagues, and stable financial resources. In the Interaction Challenges scenario, foreign policy constraints exist, but proper management enables progress at both national and international levels. The Unsustainable Growth scenario highlights the risks of reduced advertising revenue and threats to financial sustainability, emphasizing the importance of financial interactions and resource management. The study concluded that coordination among economic, political, and managerial factors is essential for developing tennis in Iraq. The Sustainable Progress scenario offers the best outlook for this development, while the other two scenarios focus on challenges and opportunities in resource management and international interactions. Finally, recommendations were provided to strengthen policymaking, attract private support, and manage financial resources sustainably, which could also aid decision-making and the development of other individual sports.