IDENTIFYING FACTORS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SWIMMING IN IRAQ AND DRAWING FUTURE SCENARIOS

Abstract

The aim of this study was to conduct foresight for the development of swimming in Iraq by 2033 using the scenario planning method. This research is applied and forward-looking, conducted with a mixed-methods approach (qualitative and quantitative) and through a survey-case method. The participants of this study included all experts in the field of swimming in Iraq, including faculty members in sports management, professional swimmers, coaches and swimming experts, managers and organizers of swimming competitions, officials of the swimming federation and committees, as well as fans and audiences of swimming. The sampling method was purposive, and 16 swimming experts participated in the study. An environmental scanning process was carried out to identify the drivers for the future of swimming in Iraq. For environmental scanning, the PESTEL model was used, during which 56 drivers were identified, and after three rounds of Delphi, 20 drivers were selected with 70% consensus among the experts. These drivers were then analyzed using a cross-impact questionnaire and MICMAC software. The results showed that four drivers—"lifting sanctions and attracting international support," "developing the sports tourism industry related to swimming," "expanding sponsorships and advertising in swimming competitions," and "popularizing swimming"—are the key drivers in the future development of swimming in Iraq. Using Scenario Wizard software, six main scenarios for the future of swimming in Iraq were formed: the "Rise of a Golden Era for the Swimming Industry," "Progress on a Bright Path with Minor Obstacles," "Conditional Prosperity Under Advertising Restrictions," "Tourism as the Beating Heart of the Swimming Industry," "Fragile Balance Amid International Barriers," and "Limited Growth Under Global Pressures." Scenario 1, "The Rise of a Golden Era for the Swimming Industry," is the most ideal scenario due to its high compatibility and greater impact. Scenarios 2 and 3 face limitations in attracting international support and sponsorships, but they still maintain infrastructure development. Scenarios 4 and 5 show insufficient growth in tourism and restricted access to swimming sports. Scenario 6, "Limited Growth Under Global Pressures," despite its high weight, has the least potential due to severe inconsistencies among variables, representing the worst-case scenario where minimal advertising, restricted access, and economic challenges hinder the comprehensive development of swimming sports. Planning efforts should focus on aligning factors such as lifting sanctions, developing tourism, and enhancing advertising to create more ideal conditions.