SOCIETAL DISINTEGRATION TRAPS IN TÜRKIYE UNDER THE BOP FRAMEWORK: A REGIONAL COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF INCOME EROSION, SOCIETAL BURNOUT, AND PATHWAYS TO STATE–SOCIETY DECOUPLING

Abstract

The societal repercussions of regional reorganization efforts undertaken within the Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI) have not been systematically examined in the academic literature. This study analyzes the "social dissolution traps" observed in Turkey within the GMEI context across three interconnected dimensions: income erosion, social burnout, and state–society disconnection, situating them within an integrated theoretical framework. The central research question asks: through what mechanisms do income erosion and social burnout feed the processes leading to state–society rupture?

Drawing on a qualitative research design that integrates interpretive and comparative methods, the study employs a field survey conducted between 2023 and 2025 with 500 participants representing five distinct social groups as its primary data source. Secondary data include macroeconomic indicators from the Turkish Statistical Institute, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, and the Social Security Institution, supplemented by gold-denominated real purchasing power comparisons. Findings are interpreted through Acemoglu and Robinson's narrow corridor theory and North, Wallis, and Weingast's limited access order framework.

Three principal findings emerge. First, a long-term and systemic erosion of real income measured in grams of gold is documented: the minimum wage fell from approximately 14.5 grams of gold in 2007 to 5.9 grams in 2024, while the lowest pension declined from 19.1 grams in 2003 to below 3 grams in 2021. Second, participants' negative perception of their personal economic situation intensified from −23.8% in 2023 to −56% in 2025, while negative assessments of the national economy rose from −18.4% to −75.4% over the same period. Third, social burnout indicators escalated simultaneously across all social groups, accompanied by a measurable erosion of institutional trust.

These findings demonstrate that income erosion undermines psychosocial resilience, generating a self-reinforcing cycle that threatens the fragile equilibrium between state capacity and societal consent. The comparative examination of Turkey alongside other GMEI-affected regional countries contributes to explaining social dissolution dynamics at the regional level and points toward actionable policy intervention pathways while the process remains reversible.