COCOON AND RAW SILK PRODUCTION IN ASSAM: GROWTH, COMPOSITION AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS

Abstract

Assam is a major producer of eri and muga silk in India, but interpretation of its production trajectory depends on consistent reporting across statistical sources. This study examines variety-wise raw silk production in Assam from 2010-11 to 2022-23 using a published compilation of the Statistical Handbook of Assam for 2010-11 to 2021-22 and the 2022-23 figures reproduced by the North Eastern Development Finance Corporation (NEDFi). Annual growth rates, compound annual growth rates (CAGRs), ordinary least-squares (OLS) trends and coefficients of variation (CVs) are used to describe growth, composition and variability. In the compiled series, reported raw silk output increased from 935.40 metric tonnes (MT) in 2010-11 to 5,721.20 MT in 2022-23, a CAGR of 16.3%. The fitted linear trend indicates an average increase of approximately 424.52 MT per year (R² = 0.933). Eri's share rose from 86.7% to 95.9%, while muga's share declined despite an increase in its reported output. Mulberry production peaked at 68.70 MT in 2019-20 and then fell to 22.11 MT in 2022-23. The CV of total output was lower in 2016-17 to 2022-23 than in 2010-11 to 2015-16, although this comparison is descriptive and does not by itself establish lower production risk. Substantial differences between the handbook-based series and other official reporting especially for 2018-19 limit direct interpretation of the observed fluctuations. The findings therefore indicate growth in the compiled series, increasing concentration in eri silk, and an urgent need to reconcile source definitions and annual observations before using the estimates for policy conclusions.